If you have spring or summer travel on the horizon, the smartest move right now is not to panic-buy. It is to stop waiting for the usual “sweet spot.”
Oil and jet fuel prices have been repriced sharply in March 2026 as the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted production and shipping routes, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on March 10 that Brent had already risen sharply after military action in the region and forecast it would remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months, with the outlook highly dependent on how long the conflict and outages last.
That matters for travelers because airlines are already doing what airlines always do when fuel spikes: raising fares, adding or increasing fuel surcharges in some markets, trimming capacity, and rerouting flights away from risky airspace. Reuters reported U.S. carriers were already pushing through fare increases by mid-March, while European airline leaders warned flyers to book early as fuel hedges unwind.
The mechanics are pretty simple. Fuel is one of the largest airline costs, and when oil rises fast, jet fuel often rises even faster. IATA’s Fuel Price Monitor said the global average jet fuel price rose 11.2% week over week to $175 per barrel in the latest reporting period. Reuters separately reported that airline executives were warning the industry would have to pass those costs along to consumers if the disruption continues.
There are a few key dates worth understanding. Reuters reported the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, after which shipping risk and production curtailments increased. By March 3, oil had jumped roughly 5% on elevated supply-risk fears. By March 10, the EIA said Brent had settled at $94 on March 9, up about 50% from the beginning of the year. By March 19, airline and energy commentary had turned even more pointed, with executives warning of higher fares and continued disruption if conditions persist.
For clients, the takeaway is not “prices will skyrocket everywhere forever.” That is too sloppy. The better message is this: if you plan to travel in the next three to six months, book earlier than normal and book smarter than normal. Reuters, CBS News, and Investopedia all converged on essentially the same advice this month: fares are already being repriced, and waiting for the classic booking window may simply mean paying more.
What does “book smarter” mean?
First, avoid basic economy whenever possible. In a volatile market, the cheapest ticket can become the most expensive mistake. Flexibility matters more when airlines are adjusting schedules, routes, and pricing quickly.
Second, prioritize fares you can change or cancel for credit. If prices fall later, flexibility gives you at least a shot at repricing or rebooking under airline rules.
Third, expect the greatest pressure on long-haul itineraries and on routes that depend on Middle East airspace or already-tight fuel supply chains. Even if oil stabilizes, longer routings, reduced capacity, and higher fuel procurement costs can keep airfare elevated longer than travelers expect.
There is also an important nuance here: hedging helps airlines, but only for a while. Some carriers locked in prices earlier and have temporary protection. But European airline leaders have already said those hedges are fading, and Reuters noted that many U.S. airlines are more exposed because they generally do not hedge fuel the way some overseas carriers do. In plain English: the buffer is wearing thin.
Could prices ease later in the year? Yes. The EIA’s forecast assumes oil can come back down if the conflict de-escalates and production resumes. So this is not a forever story. But for near-term travel, especially spring and summer departures, the current evidence supports moving sooner, not later.
So here is the Privada version of the advice:
If you know you are going, buy now.
If your dates are firm, do not wait for a mythical perfect booking day.
If you want optionality, pay a bit more for a flexible fare.
And if you are unsure, let us watch the market with you rather than gambling that this resolves cleanly next week.
That is not alarmist. That is just good planning.
Have dates in mind? Reach out with your travel window and top two destinations. We can help you lock in the best available flights now while prioritizing flexibility and monitoring for schedule changes or repricing opportunities as the fuel picture evolves.
Reuters, March 19, 2026 — Willie Walsh warns there are “no winners” in the Middle East crisis and ticket prices are likely to rise.
Reuters, March 9–10, 2026 — Airline shares battered and fares surge as oil rises above $100 and jet fuel spikes.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, March 10, 2026 — Short-Term Energy Outlook amid Middle East conflict; Brent forecast above $95 over the next two months.